Analyzing the Charlottesville and Central VA real estate market and more

Well, at least it should.

I thought I had fractured my wrist playing soccer two weekends ago (turns out the x-rays say I just have a bad boo-boo). Apparently it takes a few days for the swelling, discomfort - pain - to present itself, so I went to the doctor (Northridge Internal Medicine at UVA)

Thanks to my wife’s insurance, I went to the doctor to get a service - consultation, x-ray, interpretation - that no one has any idea how much any of that costs. That aspect aside, I was reminded that experience matters, and that one’s pay should be commensurate with one’s experience and track record.

She examined me, contorted my wrist, asked about my pain, asked how I injured myself, and before she sent me for x-rays asked me to “do this.” “This” was using my hand to assist my standing up out of the chair. When I couldn’t do it she shook her head, pursed her lips and said, “The last one I saw like that was a fracture.” The key here was that she’d seen it before.

As a Realtor, I’d like to think that I’m more competent, professional and experienced than I was when I was a newbie Realtor seven years ago. In my required BS classes, I learned very little; however through my experiences - my mistakes, my successes, my near misses, I’ve learned an extraordinary amount of knowledge that is applicable to my business and to my clients. To be blunt, I’d like to be paid for that experience; but our current environment doesn’t allow for that.

Putting aside any preconceptions about attorneys, the Virginia law firm of Allen, Allen, Allen & Allen have recently been playing an ad that speaks to my premise:

One of the problems with the real estate industry is this- very rarely does (in)experience pay. Experience matters, but it rarely pays - for one major reason - inexperience pays so well.

I don’t have a palatable solution (yet) to propose, but I welcome suggestions and inspiration.

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More at RealCrozetVA -

Request for preliminary site plan approval to construct a 7,000 square foot, two (2) story commercial building with eight (8) gas pumps and associated parking 4.06 acres.

PDF map of the site here (courtesy of Albemarle County’s awesome GIS site)

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We covered a lot of ground in twenty minutes or so on Tuesday on Coy Barefoot’s Charlottesville-Right Now! show on WINA. This is a summary, with links, to the topics we discussed. Each time I do a radio show, I realize how I really enjoy doing it. Live radio is a bit scary, but fulfilling.

Market Update - I’ll refer to the market report I published in October.

My advice remains - If you do not have to sell, strongly consider not selling. If you’re looking to buy and stay for a while, you may want to strongly consider buying right now. As Mark Cuban wrote the other -

So whats the difference between being underwater on a mortgage and underwater on a stock ? Is it that “experts” will tell you to hold the stock in hopes of it going up in value and then explain that those with homes worth less than their mortgages shouldn’t feel bad about breaking their mortgages and defaulting ?

…

“Buy and Hold” for your house is a mantra you should always live by. The difference ?

You can live in your house. You get utility from your house. You may get a deduction for interest paid on your tax bill. You can develop a positive emotional attachment to a house.

Can you get a loan in Charlottesville? Absolutely.

In an attempt to dispel some of the (justified) negativity surrounding the Charlottesville real estate market, I thought I’d ask some of the lenders with whom I regularly work for their insight. Part of my job is knowing stuff, another is knowing whom to ask. With that preface, I asked Matt Hodges with Compass Home Loans, Carl Heimlich with C & F Mortgage and a third person who was not permitted to comment on the record. (that’s what you get for asking permission). *

Assessments versus market value versus appraisals - I was going to link to a few of the stories I’ve written about these, but there are quite a few stories over the past several years. Please go to the Archives page and search for the stories with “assessments” in the titles. But - start here - Assessments, property taxes and shifting market values in Albemarle County

The new bailout/foreclosure prevention bill - start here to educate yourselves -

Calculated Risk

This is intended to help “thousands” (a drop in the bucket unless it is several hundred thousand), and seems to encourage homeowners to stop making payments until they are 90 days late.

and

Rain City Guide

This is the beginning of massive government intervention to try and slow foreclosures. On a positive side, Fannie and Freddie could provide a template for servicers to follow which may help homeowners receive a “yes” or “no” answer faster. On the down side, this may also slow the recover of the housing market, prolonging the decline of home prices. Currently 40% of loan modifications re-default. This may also further erode investor confidence in residential mortgage backed securities, the impact being even tighter underwriting guidelines than what we’re now experiencing.

Building permits in Albemarle are very, very low - and this is a good thing. (I was on the radio before I saw that story ) Look at the 3rd Quarter 2008 Building Permit Report here (pdf). Also check out Brian Wheeler’s analysis from the First Quarter of 2008.

Next time I’ll try to mention my drive to get rid of Dual Agency.

 

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Finally. After watching my friends Jay in Phoenix and Kris in San Diego do such wonderful things with their MLS search tools, I’m finally able to announce what I believe to be the single best tool to search for homes in the Charlottesville, Virginia area* -

Since founding RealCentralVA in 2005, I have never put a “Search for Homes” feature on my blog because none of the ones available had what I wanted; the technology is finally here thanks to Diverse Solutions. Also, I haven’t wanted to put “a” search solution here as I want it to add value to readers, rather than detract from the content and goals of the site. This tool, which you can use here, fulfills what I’ve been looking for.

A few of the features -

- Get alerts sent to you via Email or RSS

- Search by multiple School Districts - (eventually you should be able to search by more than one school district - I’m working on this)

- Search by Price Drops - ex: 10% in the past 10 days - and indication an property may finally be priced right

- Search by Foreclosure/Pre-Foreclosure status (still testing this one for its validity)

- Save your searches!

- Add notes to properties you’re watching.

One thing I’m already wanting to have changed (and there are likely more waiting to be found) - increase the number of results that display. I want more.

There are likely a few nuggets here and there that you’ll find useful and interesting.

With this tool, you are able to search almost the entire Charlottesville MLS - and as much as you’ll get anywhere else in the Charlottesville area - there are a few brokerages who choose not to display their listings in what is called an IDX feed - (more on this later)*.

One additional note - for the time being, I am going to keep registration off, meaning that you are free to search as much as you want (although I reserve the right to experiment from time to time). However - in order to save searches, get alerts delivered to you via RSS or email, you do need to give me some information (how else would the email gnome find you?) I’ll never spam you anyway. Promise.

Give it a spin by searching for Charlottesville homes here

Eventually, I’ll have a search widget in the sidebar of RealCentralVA, a search page and widget just for Crozet at RealCrozetVA, and hopefully one day soon at RealWaynesboroVA.

Be nice - I rushed to get it up today because I couldn’t wait any longer.

Please, please, please let me know what you think - I’ll make the changes as quickly as possible. It’s evolving and I’m happy to finally have somewhere to start.

* Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson -

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Actually, it’s not a tax “hike” but an assumption that the mil rate in Albemarle County will be raised next year. (bolding mine)

For the purposes of the financial plan, Foley said staff are assuming a tax rate increase that accounts for falling residential property values and that keeps the effective tax rate the same as the current fiscal year. The tax rate would be increased by 3.5 cents for a total rate of $0.745 per $100 of assessed value in calendar year 2009. Residential property owners, on average, would not pay an increase in their annual real estate taxes. If commercial properties were included in that calculation, the effective tax rate would be only 2.2 cents higher because commercial assessments have not declined. A one-cent rate increase was already assumed in the five-year financial forecast and the plan assumes it will go up another cent in 2010 to 75.5 cents.

Personally, I’d love to be able to assume I could earn more revenue next year.
Read the entire story at Charlottesville Tomorrow - virtually everybody in CharlAlbemarle will be affected in some way, not least by the delays to capital improvements:

The County will delay several capital projects. New fire stations in Pantops and Ivy will be delayed until FY2013. A new library for Crozet was expected to open in 2011, but that will now be pushed back to 2013. A new library to replace the Northside library will be pushed back out of the five year plan. Recycling centers anticipated to open in FY2010 will be delayed until FY2013. Western Park in the Crozet growth area, scheduled to open in 2012, will also be moved out of the first five years of the capital plan.

As I said last year - If we could all set our budgets the way government does …

Update - Related discussion at Waldo Jaquith’s site.

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I’ll be on WINA - 1070AM on Coy Barefoot’s Charlottesville - Right Now! from four thirty to just before five o’clock tomorrow afternoon. Please let me know if there are any specific questions or topics you would like us to discuss.

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