It has to be said that is one hell of a soundbite, and indeed David Cameron has a point.
Here is the scenario:
You work, you get given a tax cut. It will last one year or maybe two. Taxes will rise after that. What would you do?
What is more what will the money markets do? They will know that there will be but a temporary boost to the economy and crucially they will know that nothing is yet being done to solve the debt bubble both private and public that there is in the UK economy.
In short the markets will tank. They are currently in headless chicken mode already.
The BBC has this on the debate.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
So what is happening to the pound?
So what of George Osbourne's reckless undermining of the pound that Labour were so concerned about?
Well as Guido points out, the pound has rallied. When I wrote yesterday the pound was at $1.47, and had in the last few days hit a low of $1.45. Now it is currently trading at $1.50325 up some 3 cents since yesterday. (Current price is here)
Quite impressive and clear proof that Labour were talking rot in saying that George Osbourne's comments may damage the pound. In fact the way the reporting went over the weekend changed and started to highlight both the drop in the pound over three months and the level of the current budget deficit in such a way as to force to government to stop saying they will borrow and spend, replacing that with affordable borrowing. In many ways that tone change may have helped today's rally and would not have happened without George Osbourne's efforts.
What will sink or save the pound though is the pre budget report next Monday. Then we will see how the markets view the government.
Well as Guido points out, the pound has rallied. When I wrote yesterday the pound was at $1.47, and had in the last few days hit a low of $1.45. Now it is currently trading at $1.50325 up some 3 cents since yesterday. (Current price is here)
Quite impressive and clear proof that Labour were talking rot in saying that George Osbourne's comments may damage the pound. In fact the way the reporting went over the weekend changed and started to highlight both the drop in the pound over three months and the level of the current budget deficit in such a way as to force to government to stop saying they will borrow and spend, replacing that with affordable borrowing. In many ways that tone change may have helped today's rally and would not have happened without George Osbourne's efforts.
What will sink or save the pound though is the pre budget report next Monday. Then we will see how the markets view the government.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Baby P and the dangers of a knee jerk reaction
Whilst it is clear to me, and no doubt all of you, that with the benefit of perfect hindsight, baby P should have been protected, what we have to remember is that we do not want a knee jerk reaction. Children brought up in care have very low life chances, (for a whole number of reasons) and we do not want to condemn children to that fate without good reason.
It does, however seem to me odd that alarm bells did not ring. If you read this from the Independent on Sunday, you will see what I mean. It is clear that there were plenty of warning signals.
I am a bit concerned about the involvement of Baby P's father and indeed the father of his three sisters.
Baby P spent a night with his father in late July according to the Independent report.
Did his father not notice? If not, why not? If so why did he not act?
Did the fact that you can no longer get legal aid in family matters on a routine basis mean that he could not afford to ask the courts to give him custody?
One thing I have learned in the British courts is that we have the best justice money can buy. Did that contribute to killing baby P?
It does, however seem to me odd that alarm bells did not ring. If you read this from the Independent on Sunday, you will see what I mean. It is clear that there were plenty of warning signals.
I am a bit concerned about the involvement of Baby P's father and indeed the father of his three sisters.
Baby P spent a night with his father in late July according to the Independent report.
Did his father not notice? If not, why not? If so why did he not act?
Did the fact that you can no longer get legal aid in family matters on a routine basis mean that he could not afford to ask the courts to give him custody?
One thing I have learned in the British courts is that we have the best justice money can buy. Did that contribute to killing baby P?
George Osbourne, the pound and Labour's mendacity
In an interview in Saturday's Times, George Osbourne expressed concern that the pound could face a proper sterling crisis, a run on the pound.
In fact the article says:
To some extent this all helps our exports, except that no one is importing much right now so it doesn't. What it will do is raise inflation again suddenly forcing interest rates up.
What is worse is that Gordon Brown is looking to borrow even more hideous amounts of money for an electoral bribe. George Osbourne is right to say this will hammer the pound. We will be paying for the last Labour government for years to come. With a bot of luck there will not be another one.
The BBC has been angling on Labour criticism of George Osbourne's comments in such a way as to indicate that they would really like to have the BBC charter withdrawn altogether and be thrown to the free market.
Fraser Nelson has this on the Osbourne row, whilst Adam Boulton has this and John Redwood has this on Labour mendacity.
In fact the article says:
There is also a more immediate risk. “We are in danger, if the Government is not careful, of having a proper sterling collapse, a run on the pound. The danger of that is that it pushes up long-term interest rates. The more you borrow as government the more you have to sell that debt and the less attractive your currency seems.”Rather obviously there already has been a run on the pound, in the last four months it has collapsed from a value of $2 to the pound to $1.47, from €1.25 to €1.17 against the Euro (though in January £1 bought you €1.40) and against the Yen we have gone from £1 in July buying 205 Yen to 140 now.
To some extent this all helps our exports, except that no one is importing much right now so it doesn't. What it will do is raise inflation again suddenly forcing interest rates up.
What is worse is that Gordon Brown is looking to borrow even more hideous amounts of money for an electoral bribe. George Osbourne is right to say this will hammer the pound. We will be paying for the last Labour government for years to come. With a bot of luck there will not be another one.
The BBC has been angling on Labour criticism of George Osbourne's comments in such a way as to indicate that they would really like to have the BBC charter withdrawn altogether and be thrown to the free market.
Fraser Nelson has this on the Osbourne row, whilst Adam Boulton has this and John Redwood has this on Labour mendacity.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Baby P and Gordon Brown
I don't want to make this party political, because clearly it isn't. Instead I want to make this personal.
Gordon Brown is a tit.
I have just watched yesterday's Prime ministers questions, in which he failed to agree with Ed Balls, the children's secretary, that it was not good for a department head to investigate whether their own department had failed.
Gordon Brown was crash in suggesting that David Cameron was making a party political point.
Gordon Brown kept saying that the executive summary of the self report or Haringey council had said that there were failures in the system, and those would be looked at.
The problem here is that the head of the department that potentially messed up not only commissioned but was heavily involved in a report which said her department did nothing wrong, and that there is a problem with the "system".
Is there? How come despite 60 visits over 8 months, no one spotted the abuse? The missing fingernails, fingertip, gauge to the head, broken ribs and broken back?
What system can there be that is so fool proof that if individuals fail to spot these things the system can be blamed?
The report also highlights the difficulties of "lying parents".You jest surely? If a parent abuses a child they will first of all lie to themselves, convincing themselves that what they are doing is not abuse, after that they will obviously lie to anyone else. very seldom will an abuser confess to a social worker.
At least Ed Balls has some balls and has called for an urgent inquiry. That said on Channel 4, whilst Michael Gove was broadly supportive of Ed Balls, Ed did refuse to answer the question, "are children safe in Haringey tonight?" Rather obviously no one could confidently say they were.
The BBC has the full PMQ's here, comment here and news of Ed Ball's inquiry here.
Gordon Brown is a tit.
I have just watched yesterday's Prime ministers questions, in which he failed to agree with Ed Balls, the children's secretary, that it was not good for a department head to investigate whether their own department had failed.
Gordon Brown was crash in suggesting that David Cameron was making a party political point.
Gordon Brown kept saying that the executive summary of the self report or Haringey council had said that there were failures in the system, and those would be looked at.
The problem here is that the head of the department that potentially messed up not only commissioned but was heavily involved in a report which said her department did nothing wrong, and that there is a problem with the "system".
Is there? How come despite 60 visits over 8 months, no one spotted the abuse? The missing fingernails, fingertip, gauge to the head, broken ribs and broken back?
What system can there be that is so fool proof that if individuals fail to spot these things the system can be blamed?
The report also highlights the difficulties of "lying parents".You jest surely? If a parent abuses a child they will first of all lie to themselves, convincing themselves that what they are doing is not abuse, after that they will obviously lie to anyone else. very seldom will an abuser confess to a social worker.
At least Ed Balls has some balls and has called for an urgent inquiry. That said on Channel 4, whilst Michael Gove was broadly supportive of Ed Balls, Ed did refuse to answer the question, "are children safe in Haringey tonight?" Rather obviously no one could confidently say they were.
The BBC has the full PMQ's here, comment here and news of Ed Ball's inquiry here.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The sad case of baby P
We do not even know his name, apparently for legal reasons, but we all share the horror at hearing how baby P died.
He had 8 broken ribs, a broken spine, was missing fingernails and a fingertip and had bruises all over his body.
I pray for him.
However we have to ask why this happened?
The government has ordered a review of child protection. This, whilst well meaning is ridiculous. The faults are clear, that the existing rules were not followed and people did not do their jobs.
No amount of procedure can compensate for not following procedure.
What is needed is not so much a general review but a close review of who did what and did it meat the procedure.
The other issue of course is Haringay council. They seem to have cropped up too often here. Is there a systematic problem.
The BBC have this.
He had 8 broken ribs, a broken spine, was missing fingernails and a fingertip and had bruises all over his body.
I pray for him.
However we have to ask why this happened?
The government has ordered a review of child protection. This, whilst well meaning is ridiculous. The faults are clear, that the existing rules were not followed and people did not do their jobs.
No amount of procedure can compensate for not following procedure.
What is needed is not so much a general review but a close review of who did what and did it meat the procedure.
The other issue of course is Haringay council. They seem to have cropped up too often here. Is there a systematic problem.
The BBC have this.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
For the fallen
They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.
For the Fallen, by Laurence Binyon
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.
For the Fallen, by Laurence Binyon
Remember Armistice day, and the millions who have given their lives to keep us free, from this country and throughout the Common Wealth.
Please also support the Royal British Legions appeal to mark Armistice day.
Please also support the Royal British Legions appeal to mark Armistice day.
How to cut spending, and tax without affecting public services!
Here is a quick "How to" or "howto" cut public spending by 5% without hurting so much as a fly, or making one nurse, doctor, teacher, police person or indeed diversity officer redundant, and therefore pass this on in tax cuts.
It also has the great benefit of allowing the various departments of government, local government, quangos and all to plan more responsibly whilst getting better value for money for our cash!
Its a bit of a win win all round, but with one small catch which I will come on to later. Here is the plan;
End the hideously stupid rule that any budget needs to be spent by the end of the budget period or else not only will that money be lost but the next years budget will be lowered by the underspend.
This will stop government departments year end blow outs, incentivise them to look for value and allow them to roll over budget surpluses to spend on larger projects.
The one downside is that private companies that look to grab March spending splurges will be hit and that will have a knock on effect.
It also has the great benefit of allowing the various departments of government, local government, quangos and all to plan more responsibly whilst getting better value for money for our cash!
Its a bit of a win win all round, but with one small catch which I will come on to later. Here is the plan;
End the hideously stupid rule that any budget needs to be spent by the end of the budget period or else not only will that money be lost but the next years budget will be lowered by the underspend.
This will stop government departments year end blow outs, incentivise them to look for value and allow them to roll over budget surpluses to spend on larger projects.
The one downside is that private companies that look to grab March spending splurges will be hit and that will have a knock on effect.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Tax cuts now!
There has been a debate in the Conservative party ranks for a long time, about tax cuts, or rather their timing.
I think we all agree that there should be tax cuts, and I think we all agree that the burden of taxation is too high. The problem was, and to some extent still is how do you pay for them?
If you intend on cutting public expenditure by £1 billion by say, losing people with ridiculous job descriptions, Labour will try and paint that as axing hundreds of nurses, doctors or teachers. That is a narrative that needs to be broken.
We, as a party have promised to promised to "share the proceeds of growth". That was fine. Times have however moved on. The car crash that is Gordon Brown has happened, the economy is hitting a brick wall at great speed and we need to look afreash at what we do and what we propose.
Firstly we need to cut taxes, and at the low end first, by reversing the increase in taxes on small companies and by reducing taxes on lower incomes by upping personal allowances or other similar moves.
The second thing the Conservative party needs to do is nail the idea that spending money equals results. It doesn't. This government is looking to raise spending on education, per child, to that spent in private schools. As a policy objective that is nuts. It also wanted to, and indeed has achieved, raising spending on health to the average across Europe. That is the policy objective, rather than looking for results.
This is where we need to attack Labour. If you can buy a car for £10,000 spending £20,000 on the same car does not make it a better car.
I think we all agree that there should be tax cuts, and I think we all agree that the burden of taxation is too high. The problem was, and to some extent still is how do you pay for them?
If you intend on cutting public expenditure by £1 billion by say, losing people with ridiculous job descriptions, Labour will try and paint that as axing hundreds of nurses, doctors or teachers. That is a narrative that needs to be broken.
We, as a party have promised to promised to "share the proceeds of growth". That was fine. Times have however moved on. The car crash that is Gordon Brown has happened, the economy is hitting a brick wall at great speed and we need to look afreash at what we do and what we propose.
Firstly we need to cut taxes, and at the low end first, by reversing the increase in taxes on small companies and by reducing taxes on lower incomes by upping personal allowances or other similar moves.
The second thing the Conservative party needs to do is nail the idea that spending money equals results. It doesn't. This government is looking to raise spending on education, per child, to that spent in private schools. As a policy objective that is nuts. It also wanted to, and indeed has achieved, raising spending on health to the average across Europe. That is the policy objective, rather than looking for results.
This is where we need to attack Labour. If you can buy a car for £10,000 spending £20,000 on the same car does not make it a better car.
Yet another poll lead for the Conservative party
According to the Telegraph on Sunday an ICM poll reports a 13% lead for the Conservative party.
This is good news, and points to a Conservative overall majority of between 76 and 80.
You have to wonder if that will burst Labour's bubble and change the media narrative? It ought to as the media narrative was made up anyway.
Politicalbetting.com has this and Iain Dale has this.
This is good news, and points to a Conservative overall majority of between 76 and 80.
You have to wonder if that will burst Labour's bubble and change the media narrative? It ought to as the media narrative was made up anyway.
Politicalbetting.com has this and Iain Dale has this.
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