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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

On Blankfein, Bonuses and Bank Performance


"It's about time!!!" was how one, possibly irritated, blog reader greeted the news that Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sach’s CEO, and his team will be paid only their base salaries, with no bonuses this year, as a show of contrition for being part of an industry that's been responsible for the current crisis. My reaction, on the other hand, is just a big yawn, mainly because under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) rules, there are really restrictions on executive compensation which would apply to Goldman as a voluntary beneficiary of the federal government's capital injection program. In other words, Goldman is only squeezing every bit of media spin that it can get out of this inevitability. But that's not what this post is about.

You see, there's this Gilian Tett article about the insights she gained on Wall Street banking behavior while working as a social anthropologist, studying Tajik goat-herders in the Himalayas some two decades earlier. Apparently, her observations or studies on micro-level incentives and political structures among Tajik goat-herders provide a useful template for analyzing risk and remuneration at modern-day banks. The interesting point she attempted to explain is this: How come the bonus system, despite its being endemic to the industry, has not produced identical outcomes at the banks?

Let me now quote her explanation (emphasis are mine):

Why? Luck, undoubtedly, plays a part. But I suspect at least three other factors might also shed light on the puzzle.

One is obvious: namely the character of those running banks. In recent years, it has been fashionable in management circles to encourage leaders to delegate. This is a principle Chuck Prince, former head of Citi, for example, appears to have practised (perhaps because there was no alternative, given Citi’s gargantuan size). So, famously, did James Cayne at Bear Stearns.

But one trait most surviving bank leaders share, as one policymaker recently observed to me, is that “they tend to be meddlers – very hands on”. Moreover, many also have another key feature: they have had direct career experience of trading and managing market risk. This has given them an obvious advantage in navigating the credit cycle, since they presumably know what a derivative is.

Furthermore, men such as Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs or Anshu Jain at Deutsche, who have risen through trading desks, instinctively tend to view everything in terms of probabilities and risk. That is a different mindset from somebody who has previously worked as a salesman, adviser – or lawyer, such as Mr Prince.

However, there is a third issue which may be even more important – the culture of power. As far an outsider can tell, Goldman Sachs appears to have retained many of the cultural features of its previous partnership. Employees typically view themselves as being affiliated to the bank, not business line, and there is a strong ethos of shared accountability. As a result, senior Goldman staff appear able to scrutinise the operations of other business units with more freedom than at other banks.

However, groups such as Citi or Merrill appear to have developed a more hierarchical pattern, in which the different business lines have existed like warring tribes, answerable only to the chief. Moreover, the most profitable tribe has invariably wielded the most power – and thus was untouchable and inscrutable to everyone else. Hence the fact that, in this tribal culture, nobody reined in the excesses of the structured finance teams at Citi and Merrill.

So there you have it. The financial institutions that tend to be winners in the current mess are those whose leaders are meddlers and hands-on, have direct career experience in trading and managing market risks, and have a strong "tribal" culture. Do you belong to one such institution?

(Photo credit: Google Images)

Monday, November 17, 2008

G-20 Summit: So Sorry, Sarkozy


Three developments I monitored closely this month--my health check-up, the U.S. presidential elections, and the G-20 Summit. My health check-up is a semi-annual routine which was prescribed for me after I underwent a medical procedure in 2006. As for the recent elections, though I'm not an American, I eagerly awaited the outcome because Mr. Obama's vision of change captured my imagination. And the G-20 Summit? Well, I simply wanted to see who would surprise me more--President George W. Bush or French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Actually, for a lameduck president, Mr. Bush exceeded my expectations, in the sense of not putting his successor-in-waiting in a difficult bind when Mr. Obama attends the next conference in April 2009, judging from the Summit Declaration issued on Nov. 15 (complete text available here). To cite an example: I read the "commitment to free market principles" in Paragraph 12 of the Declaration, which I've quoted below, as a victory for Mr. Bush (he has repeatedly voiced this prior to the summit) and an important legacy to Mr. Obama who will inherit this unfinished business, although there are obvious concessions on "regulated financial systems," to probably make the wording win-win for everyone:

12. We recognize that these reforms will only be successful if grounded in a commitment to free market principles, including the rule of law, respect for private property, open trade and investment, competitive markets, and efficient, effectively regulated financial systems.

Europe, led by Mr. Sarkozy who took over the European Union's rotating presidency last July, apparently underestimated the resolve of a U.S. badly distracted by a worsening economy and nervous financial markets, and polarized by a closely contested presidential election. Of Mr. Sarkozy, Jon Vinocur wrote this in the International Herald Tribune:

His attempt to take advantage of the presidential interregnum in the United States and turn a meeting on global economic misery into a new world financial charter bearing his imprint just didn't happen.

Yes, the inclusion of Russia, China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia to the classic Western lineup of economic overseers was universally welcomed, although Sarkozy himself called the detailed results "not very glamorous."

I'm reminded of a yellowing piece of paper which was salvaged from the first Anglo-American discussions leading to the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, which was found in the personal papers at Princeton of Harry Dexter White, the lead U.S. negotiator, opposite Britain's Lord Maynard Keynes. The note said:

In Washington Lord Halifax once whisphered to Lord Keynes:
"It's true they have the money bags but we have the brains."

No offense meant, but just between us, guys, I think Bush had neither of both when he went to the G-20 Summit and yet he won the day. So sorry, Sarkozy. That says a lot about you.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Resource: Great YouTube Introductory Video On Investment Banking

A large proportion of my visitor traffic continues to come from Google and Yahoo searches on the keywords "investment banking" and "investment banker." These may mostly be searches from finance undergrad students. But then again, maybe not; people could simply be curious about this subject, or if more than that, are considering a career change (this is, of course, a most challenging time for i-bankers). Whatever the reason or reasons, you will find the following YouTube video on the subject very informative and engaging.

This video was produced by Dr Kathy Walsh from the School of Banking and Finance at the Australian School of Business. I'd say that this is the best introductory video on investment banking that I've come across so far on the Web in my over two years of blogging. Prepare to spend the next 32 minutes for this enjoyable video.

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